When Will The Covid-19 Virus Become Endemic ???

 

  • The Omicron Variant destroyed Christmas 2021 - much like the Delta Variant wrecked Summer 2020
  • The Omicron Variant is more transmissible - but less virulent than the Delta Variant
  • We need to embrace Non Pharmaceutical Interventions - or NPIs
    • NPIs include: rapid COVID-19 testing / wearing iso masks / staying home during major outbreaks / etc
  • Once these NPIs are followed - we move on from a state of acute emergency to a state of transition to endemicity
    • Endemicity means that immunity and infections will have reached a steady state
      • Not enough people will be immune to deny the virus a host
      • Not enough people will be vulnerable to spark widespread outbreaks
  • Endemicity isn’t a promise of safety. - rather it’s a guarantee of having to be on guard all the time
  • We can’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid, because it has other hiding places in the world
  • As long as another host for Covid exists, there is no hope of being safe from it forever
    • Covid-19 herd immunity is a pipe dream
  • It’s a weird irony that the US, so well supplied with vaccines that you can get shots without an appointment, is short of rapid tests, when they’re a routine part of the Covid response in Germany and the government distributes them for free in the United Kingdom
  • Learning to live with the long presence of Covid will require acknowledging that breakthrough infections may happen to us all at some point, even though a full course of vaccination plus rapid use of antivirals will mute their severity
  • The fate of the pandemic is governed by the vulnerability of the least protected
  • We need to make sure everybody in the world has access to their two doses of vaccines by the end of March 2022

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