How Will Business Be Affected By The Ukraine War ?

 Will The Ukraine War Change Business ?

1. The war will add to supply-chain disruptions in sectors such as automotive, increasing the pressure of localization

1. Supply chains will become increasingly localized

2. A surge in energy and other commodity prices will hasten public and private sector efforts to improve food security

1. The commodity rally will drive adoption of sustainable food policies

3. The investment needed to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian energy will affect funding for clean-energy investments in developing countries

1. The energy transition will vary between the developing and developed world
2. The EU will need outsized investments to diversify away from Russian gas

4. Financial sanctions against Russia may accelerate the transition from US dollar backed financial systems to interoperable central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)

1. The weaponized of financial sanctions will lead to a bifurcation of the global monetary order

5. Geopolitical tensions over technology (already central to the US-China trade war) will intensify as Russia curbs internet access and faces technological sanctions

1. Tech will become increasingly geopolitical and regionalized

4 Defining Business Management Movements & Beyond

 I attended an amazing Business lecture and discussion recently - via my UBC Executive MBA Program .

What are the 4 Defining Business Management Movements (In The Past 30 Years) - and What Can We Expect Post Pandemic / After COVID-19 ?

1st Wave: Process Engineering - Circa 1990-Early 2000s

• Focus on eliminating bureaucracy and boosting operational efficiencies
• Managers might assume "player-coach" roles that required them to take on worker tasks

2nd Wave: Digitization - Circa 2010

• Democratization of access to information and people
• CEOs / C Suite Officers communicated directly to the entire workforce
• Removed some Vice / Junior Managers from the information loop

3rd Wave: Agile Movement - Circa 2015-2020

• Shorten timelines and increase innovation by using internal marketplaces across whole organizations to match skills to work and to rapidly assemble project teams on an as-needed basis

4th Wave: Flexible Work - 2020 - 2022

• Work From Home
• Increased the need to cultivate empathetic relationships that would allow managers to engage and retain the people they supervised
• Massive need for coaching, communication, and employee well being

5th Wave: Post Pandemic - 2020 & Beyond - Who Knows ?

    Three Possible Theories Of What Will Happen Next:

a) Building New Skills At Scale

• Case Study - Standard Chartered - London, England - Retail Bank
• 14,000 middle managers decided to take a central role in the bank's growth
• Managers became "people leaders" via an AI based coaching platform
• Developed peer to peer coaching networks in African, Middle Eastern, and Asian markets
• Launched Pilot Project wherein managers were reimbursed for paying for formal coaching training

b) Rewiring Processes & Systems

• Case Study - IBM - Circa 2013 - Diane - Chief HR Officer & CEO - Ginni Rommerty
• IBM built a culture optimized for innovation and speed - and needed its managers to lead retraining efforts, adapt their management styles toggle work methods, and get all employees engaged in the journey
• A manager's ongoing service to IBM became tied to the continued growth and engagement of their direct reports

c) Splitting The Role Of The Manager

• Case Study - Telstra - Australian Telecommunications Company - $16B Valuation

• Distinction between leaders of people and leaders of work

On Writing

 Sometime around Monday, December the 21st (the 1st day of Winter) I grabbed 3 pens and pledged to keep writing till the 1st day of Spring (Sat, March the 20th) . Today I noticed all 3 pens are almost dead .

Writing is a habit that I will definitely continue !

My First Marketing Client - RIP

 I recently found out my 1st ever Marketing client passed away in May of 2020 .

He was my 1st client while I was still doing my Marketing Undergraduate studies at UBC & Capilano University - in 2000 .

Clearly a lot happened in 22 years . In 2000, he signed up with me on a 3 month contract . He had owned a construction company in North Vancouver .

He wanted to expand his business - so he hired me to create a Strategic Marketing Plan - as well as to edit his existing Business Plan .

The Marketing Fundamentals I focussed on were:

a) Product

b) Price

c) Promotion

d) Place

e) People

f) Process

g) Physical Evidence

I will share some of that Strategic Marketing Plan in a later blog post .

RIP Dylan

When Will The Covid-19 Virus Become Endemic ???

 

• The Omicron Variant destroyed Christmas 2021 - much like the Delta Variant wrecked Summer 2020
• The Omicron Variant is more transmissible - but less virulent than the Delta Variant
• We need to embrace Non Pharmaceutical Interventions - or NPIs
• NPIs include: rapid COVID-19 testing / wearing iso masks / staying home during major outbreaks / etc
• Once these NPIs are followed - we move on from a state of acute emergency to a state of transition to endemicity
• Endemicity means that immunity and infections will have reached a steady state
• Not enough people will be immune to deny the virus a host
• Not enough people will be vulnerable to spark widespread outbreaks
• Endemicity isn’t a promise of safety. - rather it’s a guarantee of having to be on guard all the time
• We can’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind Covid, because it has other hiding places in the world
• As long as another host for Covid exists, there is no hope of being safe from it forever
• Covid-19 herd immunity is a pipe dream
• It’s a weird irony that the US, so well supplied with vaccines that you can get shots without an appointment, is short of rapid tests, when they’re a routine part of the Covid response in Germany and the government distributes them for free in the United Kingdom
• Learning to live with the long presence of Covid will require acknowledging that breakthrough infections may happen to us all at some point, even though a full course of vaccination plus rapid use of antivirals will mute their severity
• The fate of the pandemic is governed by the vulnerability of the least protected
• We need to make sure everybody in the world has access to their two doses of vaccines by the end of March 2022

A Recap On The Shipping Crisis - 2 Weeks Later

Of course there are no solutions in sight with regards to the Global Shipping Crisis - especially over the Christmas & New Year's Day holidays .

• The Global Shipping Crisis will continue well into 2022
• Ships jam-packed with containers are stuck at ports
• Factories have had to limit production - in spite of increased online orders
• There are approximately 25 million containers on 5500 container ships worldwide
• Sadly the COVID-19 Pandemic (March 2020) led to lockdowns & inconsistent supply & demand - which have thrown global supply chains and transportation networks out of whack
• There is also a shortage of shipping & transportation industry workers
• The shipping crisis hit a benchmark moment when the Ever Given became stuck in the Suez Canal in March 2021
• This blocked approximately 400 container ships for 1 week - and led to approximately $10B USD in tree losses
• Constant pressure to load and unload goods at shipping terminals has lead to hoarding of shipped goods
• Interestingly enough - goods can take up to 2 months to clear in California's port - but Amazon's cargo ships wait approximately 2 days
• Amazon can now make its own shipping containers - and use smaller ports and charters its own private ships
• In January 2021 - Amazon acquired 11 Boeing 767 Airliners to be used as cargo planes to ship goods worldwide
• Amazon is now in the top 5 of highest ranked shipping companies in the Trans Pacific Federation
• Amazon's techniques are very expensive but they are also very successful
• Amazon can send containers directly to the destination - without having to return them after each delivery
• By contrast - there are over 100,000 empty containers in the LA port waiting to be returned to their point of origin
• Amazon has sent approximately $4 Billion USD in shipping expenses
• Even Coca Cola is now chartering bulk shipping vessels that are usually reserved for hauling loose materials like coal
• These private ships can easily cost as much as $40K per day
• Most people are hoping the demand for shipping containers will decline after Christmas / New Year's Day
• Ultimately the longer-term issue is inflationary pressure
• Every manufacturer / brand will have to decide whether to increase prices or take quality out of the product
• Surging inflation could see millions of North American households paying $3500.00 USD in additional expenses over 2022

A Partial Opinion On The Chip Shortage !

My Partial Opinion On The Supply Chain Crisis / Automotive Industry Micro-Chip Shortage

o   I’ve worked in the Transportation industry for about 10 years part-time – so this is my partial opinion – lol !

o   The computer chip shortage is mostly affecting the Automotive industry

o   After the WHO declared the COVID-19 Pandemic official on March 11, 2020 – the Computer industry’s sales increased as people started working from home (upgrading their IT)

o   The Automotive industry paused their semiconductor orders & limited their forecasts

§  They didn’t want any leftover inventory (unsold cars) – as everyday life & travel outside the home (as of Spring 2020) came with increased restrictions

o   A key thing to note that chips in the Automotive industry – when compared with chips in the Computer industry – are considered “older tech” / older style chips

o   The computer industry has far more modern chips – e.g. Apple M1 / M1 Pro / M1 Max / Intel i7

Apple is worth 2.807T vs GM @ 148.1B & Tesla @ 936.54B - it's not surprising that Apple's chip woes get less press than say GM or Ford or Tesla

o   Once the Automotive Industry catches up – or receives their back ordered chips – they will have to first start completing assembly of unfinished cars

o   Forecasts – again – will have to be slashed & newer vehicles will roll out slower – probably up until early / middle 2023

o   Tier 1 / 2 / 3 / Auto manufacturers/ suppliers of engines / transmissions / drivetrains / electric motors won’t be producing the same volume due to backlog of unfinished inventory

o   Overseas Chip manufacturing is mostly in Taiwan / TSMC - so it seems fairly obvious most people will be watching what is happening in Taiwan - and China - in early 2022 .

o